Forecasting of Economic Indicators (Production, Consumption, Population) of Wheat Crop (A Case Study)
Keywords:
Economic Indicators, Wheat crop, ARIMA Models, Forecasting, AfghanistanAbstract
Wheat is the most important food crop in Afghanistan, whether consumed by the bulk of the people or used in various sectors. The problem is that Afghanistan has a significant shortfall of wheat between domestic production and consumption. Thus, the present study looks at the issue of meeting self-sufficiency for the whole population due to wheat shortages. To do so, we employ time series analysis, which can produce a highly exact short-run prediction for a significant quantity of data on the variables in question. The ARIMA models are versatile and widely utilised in univariate time series analysis. The ARIMA model combines three processes: I the auto-regressive (AR) process, (ii) the differencing process, and (iii) the moving average (MA) process. These processes are referred to as primary univariate time series models in statistical literature and are widely employed in various applications. Where predicting future wheat requirements is one of the most important tools that decision-makers may use to assess wheat requirements and then design measures to close the gap between supply and consumption. The present study seeks to forecast Production, Consumption, and Population for the period 2002-2017 and estimate the values of these variables between 2002 and 2017. (2018-2030).
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Author Biography
Mohammad Karim Ahmadzai, Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Paktia University, AFGHANISTAN.
Mohammad Karim Ahmadzai was born in 1984 in Gardez City, Paktia Province, Afghanistan. He received his M.Sc. in Agriculture [Agricultural Economics and Management] from Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China, in 2020. He has been working as an Academic member since 2012 at Agricultural Economics and Extension Department, Agricultural Faculty, Paktia University, Gardez, Paktia, Afghanistan.
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